Measurement and Analytics

posted 02/16/08 by Rick Webb

We get a lot of questions from our clients about Metrics. How do we know if our campaign is successful? How do we know if it worked? What kind of stats can we give someone to prove this was a success? How can we track this or that? How do I know we’re spending the right money in the right place?
So. These are all good questions. Let’s work through this.
We have a Measurement & Analytics department filled with analysts who are here to help you figure out these tough questions. In some situations, this is a fairly straightforward, rigorous, well worked out process. These situations include traffic analysis on websites, search engine optimization and paid media spending efficacy.
There are other situations where measuring impact and ROI is a little bit more challenging.

Traffic Metrics vs Brand Metrics


Yes, there is a ridiculous level of tracking ability with certain kinds of web advertising. And this, my friends, is where the catch lies. You can track a banner through to a website through to sales perfectly. You cannot track an online video game’s emotional impact on a customer and how it helped them to buy one type of cereal over another. It’s the age old branding vs. sales approach to advertising – it exists on the web just like everywhere else. Compound this with the fact that there is no means to compare, say, $1million spent on the Internet directly against $1million spent in print. And on top of that, there’s no way to tell yet, at all, if having 10 million people download your ad on YouTube was worth anything. 
And yet, brand exists. Brand impact exists. The challenges of measuring it on the web are little different than the challenges of measuring it anywhere else, and the same types of tools and approaches work best: surveys, surveys, and surveys. Plus a clear set of parameters and goals and agreements on how to measure them.
There are challenges to this, of course – if you’re spending $100MM on television and $10MM on the web, it can be hard to measure the web’s impact, and yet you’ll need to measure it in order to ascertain whether it’s worth it to shift more money. We can help you with that: it’s a combination of tools, people and insights. Let’s talk.

Websites, Paid Advertising and SEO

There is, of course, much to be learned by looking at the traffic on your site, and there is much to be learned from things like the number of clicks a banner gets, and the number of times a video was downloaded from YouTube. These, however, are only useful comparing them against other campaigns, and the same metrics. 1 Million YouTube downloads isn’t a lot. 10 million page views sounds great but may or may not mean anything, depending on the circumstances. 
There are a lot of marketing people out there who have grown very comfortable and happy with the statistics they can get on the broadcast side. Statistics are ridiculously well kept on that side. You can see the needle move in sales and calculate, to the penny, exactly how much money a campaign made you. God, if I were a marketing exec I would be eating that stuff up – I’d have paid some 18 year old programmer a bunch of money to make me a set of widgets for my computer that let me see, to the second, how effective my advertising was. In fact, I’m willing to wager that this already exists. 
The challenge, then, is that these types of marketing people are hearing a lot of great stuff about the web. They’re hearing how it’s trackable, and it’s the great white hope for high bang-for-your-buck advertising. 
And indeed it can be. We offer in-depth services where we take a close look at your traffic patterns, benchmark it against competitors, and offer concrete steps, with measurable goals and impact. It’s an ongoing service, and something our clients see a benefit to over time.

h2. Viral Metrics
Then there is measuring “viral impact.” Ew. That just sounds dirty. There’s been a lot of progress in measuring impact and ROI on viral campaigns in the last few years, but our original views still largely stand. Here is our unfiltered, gods-honest truth. You know it when you see it, and all stats are bunk. They can, will, and are always tailored to make a campaign look like a success. In our opinion, you’re wasting your money buying any tracking packages – there are perfectly good ones that tell you everything you need to know, for more or less for free. In our opinion, companies that track the success of viral efforts are bunk. Companies that track “buzz” are bunk. 

Making Sense of it All

For a metrics-based marketer, it’s all kind of a nightmare. The temptation is, then, when moving your marketing dollars to the Internet, to place your money in media that is tracked – banners, websites – over media that is not – phantom campaigns, advergames, MySpace groups. This is not unreasonable, however, it is easy to forget: Just because an advertising vehicle is more trackable does not necessarily mean its more effective. You may measure greater success with ad vehicle A over ad vehicle B, but it is very possible this is purely a dynamic of the characteristics of the metrics themselves, not the efficacy of the vehicle. 
It is these tough questions that our Measurement & Analytics department is here to help you sort out.
In the meantime, we do what we can to push the limits of the world of online metrics. We work on software that measures things that haven’t been measured yet. We offer insights to other metrics companies. We sit on panels and committees. We are dabbling even in startups. We believe there’s a long way to go with metrics, and we try and push it when we can. After all, analytics are definitely part of Marketing R&D. 

Here are some recent posts from our employees about Measurement and Analytics:

Finally, an Awesome Social Media Analytics Tool

Back in April I wrote a blog post about how effectively measuring the success of social media campaigns was frequently sought after but seldom achieved. Fast forward only eight months and it appears that a noble contender has finally arrived on the scene with the promise of delivering the social media analytics we’ve all only dreamed of. What’s this truly awesome company called? Actually, it’s called awe.sm.
If you’re familiar with bit.ly, the popular url shortening service, then you’ll easily understand how awe.sm works. Essentially, awe.sm creates and tracks custom, shortened urls for links that get broadcast on social media networks. Maybe it’s a link to your new blog post, new product landing page, or the download page of your latest software release. When people click on this link, in addition to getting forwarded to the full-length URL on your site, awe.sm tracks all the information of the interaction and stores it. After the tweet or facebook post or tumblr share has been shared over and over, these recorded interactions leave a breadcrumb trail that tells the entire story of who did the sharing, when it happened, and most importantly, what the effects were.
To get a sense of what a huge improvement this is, take a look at the paltry amount of information you get from a bit.ly tracked link. We launched an awesome screen saver earlier this year with a custom bit.ly link, and here is the page with the tracked statistics of how the link performed: https://bitly.com/l6vsHH+ Sure, there’s some information there, but not enough to draw any real conclusions.
Awe.sm takes link analytics about twenty steps further, providing true insight on a digital campaign. Awe.sm claims to map how a message spreads across a network and even show a social media campaign’s added value as an actual dollar amount. Can they really do all that? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to try the 30-day free trial to find out.

Rubric Scale for Web Analytics Analysis

After several years in the web analytics industry, it pains me to see the quality of some people’s “analysis” (if you can call it that). I’ve attempted to come up with a Rubric scale for comments & analysis written in reports. It’s a scoresheet of sorts, used to measure the usefulness of any type of analysis one does. While this is by no means perfect, or as straight forward as it appears in this article, I wanted to have this documented to remind myself to keep pushing.

Understanding Social Behavior: Innovation Adoption

In the digital world, new products are getting released all the time. Last week it was Facebook and the new Timeline. This week it’s Amazon and several new Kindle models. No matter what company is behind a new product release and no matter what the details are of a particular new product, there is a fairly consistent pattern of user adoption that unfolds. This sociologic model, known as the Innovation Adoption Lifecycle, dates as far back as the 1950’s when it was first documented by corn seed researchers at the University of Iowa. A small group of fearless people inadvertently start things off as early adopters; they are followed some time later by the masses, who are more cautious of change; and finally the change-averse eventually get on board long after it’s popular to do so.
If you look at any technology from the past or present like color television, GPS, or digital video streaming, user behavior closely adheres to this model. The same is true if you look at any specific web behaviors, like online communication, online shopping, or even online dating (remember when that was something people would be embarrassed about?). This model explains why a significant number of people are furious about the new changes to Facebook (they’ve been forced to adopt a change long before they’re comfortable doing so), and also why these same people will be happy to use the new Facebook in another few weeks (they will have had some time to get accustomed to it).
When companies attempt to score themselves on the success of a product launch, they often look at how long it took to reach a particular milestone. For example, it took Facebook 852 days to reach 10M users and Twitter 780 days to reach 10M users, while it only took Google+ 16 days to reach the same amount of users (source). Does that mean that Google+ is going to be more successful? Not necessarily. It just means that by the time Google+ was released, joining a social network was no longer so innovative, and therefor early adopters and mass users alike were joining all at once. Another interesting example is to look at the adoption of smart phones. While Blackberries were the first dominant force in the smartphone market, they were later surpassed by iPhones, who have since been surpassed by Androids. While some adoption curves move more slowly, they end up reaching a higher total rate of adoption, like in the case of Android. That might look something like this in a comparative plot:
The reality is that it is nearly impossible to anticipate how a product launch will go. No matter what the data looks like at any given moment, you never know if you’re in the middle of a huge exponential growth curve, or whether your growth is just about to peak and fall off. Rather than trying to predict the future, it makes more sense to focus on the various types of users and create a plan that meets the needs of as many people as possible. Modeling a multi-staged advertising campaign that first targets early adopters and later targets the mainstream is one effective way to use this knowledge of human behavior to increase your odds of success. There are no guarantees in life, but smart thinking can start to stack the odds in your favor.

What's Up with Facebook Today?

Facebook rolled out significant changes to the core user experience, likely in preparation for the F8 developer conference that starts tomorrow. Overall, Facebook is giving users more control over what content is included in their experience, offering tools to manually choose whose content is shown and how often. For brands, this means that the visibility of their content is no longer entirely at the mercy of EdgeRank, but rather is increasingly up to each individual fan.

A Guide to Facebook Subscriptions, Edgerank, and Sponsored Stories

Announcing Facebook Subscriptions
You may have already heard about Subscriptions, the great new feature that Facebook rolled out last week. Essentially, it’s adding a new way for people to connect with one another on Facebook. Previously, your only option was to ‘friend’ other people and hope that they accepted your request. With Subscriptions, you can subscribe to people’s public newsfeed, but they don’t need to approve your request or subscribe you back; they simply need to set their newsfeed to be open to subscribers and choose to publish public content. This asymmetric, or one-way, relationship is what Twitter and Google+ have always used, but it’s totally new to Facebook.


Understanding Facebook’s Edgerank Filter
Getting content onto the news feed of Facebook users isn’t such an easy task. When Facebook initially rolled out the news feed functionality many years ago, it shared anything and everything that happened within a user’s social network. But once these networks became increasingly large and complex, it was clear that this filterless free-for-all wasn’t working any more. So Facebook developed an internal filtering mechanism called Edgerank. What Edgerank does is assign a priority-based number to every piece of content that might show up in a user’s news feed. If it is published by a close friend versus a distant friend, it ranks higher. If it is a piece of content with a lot of likes and comments, it ranks higher. If it is a piece of content that is similar to other content that was popular in the past, it ranks higher. And whenever there is more content then there are open spaces in the news feed, only the highest ranking content shows up.
Subscriptions Give Users More Control
With the new Subscriptions functionality, now users have more say over what content gets published and what doesn’t. By choosing to subscribe to another user’s updates, Facebook users are given the option to get all updates, most updates, or only important updates. The default is most updates, but by selecting all updates, every post by a subscribed user will get shown, no matter its Edgerank score. This is good news for users and for public figures with huge followings, because now it is up to broadcasters and their audience members to decide how much content is being posted. But this is bad news for brands, because the new subscription functionality is only available to individual accounts and not to Facebook Pages.

Brands Can Use Sponsored Stories
Most brands aren’t familiar with Edgerank and how it works, but those who are familiar have been very upset to discover that much of their branded content isn’t ever showing up on the news feeds of their followers. Unless a brand and a fan have regular contact, the brand’s content simply doesn’t rank high enough to ever get published. Should the Subscriptions functionality get extended to brands and Facebook Pages, than this problem would be solved, as brands could encourage their fans to both Like their Page and Subscribe to their news feed. But in the meantime, the only way to make sure your branded messages are being heard is with Sponsored Stories, a way to pay to get noticed.

Sponsored Stories are a specific type of Facebook Targeted Ad. Rather than it being an ad that gets served at any time to promote a brand Page or website, instead it is an ad that gets served just after a Facebook user interacts with a brand’s Page. One way to use this is to promote individual wall posts, while another way is to announce to the friends of a fan that the fan just liked your Page or your wall post. This is an amazing way to ensure that your content is getting viewed both by your existing fans as well as by their friends. Just like with Targeted Ads, you have detailed control over who sees the sponsored stories (age, location, interests, etc) and you only pay when the story is clicked on. Typically this costs about $1 per click, but the rates are variable and can be much lower if you desire.
What This Means For Your Brand
Facebook is working hard to continue innovating. With Twitter and Google+ stealing some of the spotlight, Facebook needs to do more to win over partnered brands and users. Subscriptions and Sponsored Stories are evidence of this renewed effort and are likely just the beginning of Facebook offering better products and experiences. And with the Facebook F8 conference kicking off this Thursday, there’s a good chance that even more great features will be announced this week. Whether or not Facebook succeeds in staying the king of social in the coming years, brands and users will benefit from all the new features Facebook rolls out as it tries to stay competitive.

Nielsen Study Shows Top Social Site Stats

Earlier this week Nielsen released a report on social media use in the United States, providing countless helpful statistics for brands and social media professionals. Overall the data shows that social media is continuing to grow and, in particular, become more popular with people over 55. Check out some of these incredible stats:
  • 4 out of 5 internet users visit social networks and blogs.

  • 2 out of 5 of social users access content from mobile devices.

  • 1 out of every 4 minutes spent online is on social networks.

  • 1 out of 2 adult users of social media follow a brand; 1 out of 3 follow a celebrity.
One of the most interesting parts of the study was a look at the top social sites, ranked both by unique site visitors, as well as by minutes spend on the site. Remember that unique site visitors tells the story of total awareness, while minutes spent on the site tells the story of total engagement. In the below graphic, I took the liberty of combining the two figures into a minutes per user measurement, which, in my opinion, is the ultimate measure of user engagement. What is most surprising is how Tumblr clearly has an extremely engaged audience, whereas Blogger, despite its huge user base, is simply not holding people’s attention.
Overall, this report is great news for social media. With this level of growth across all user segments and social platforms, there’s no question that social media has hit the main stream and has some unstoppable momentum.

Understanding Social Behavior: The Interest Graph

I see this graph every where I look. This very graph describes the rapid rise and fall of Google+ in the two and half months since its launch; it describes the number of tweets about Bin Laden’s death within the first 48 hours of the story breaking; it describes the first week of site visits to the virally successful groupmeh site we built this past spring. But as I’ve become more acquainted with this simple but brilliant graph, I’ve even begun to see it off-line. Think back to any short-lived relationship you’ve had. Think back to your listening behavior of a new favorite musical album. Think back to how often you went to the gym after signing up for a new membership. I’m beginning to think that this graph doesn’t just represent digital interest, but rather it represents human interest in general. We’re simply creatures with a high amount of enthusiasm for new things, but with relatively short attention spans…

Want your Facebook Page to thrive? Think globally.

I constantly find myself surprised when I see data which demonstrates how global the world really is. It’s not because I’m an American and I have some sort of imperialist view of the planet; it’s because I’m human, and we all struggle to think about things outside of our individual spheres. If you’re using social media to organize events in your local community, then going with your own intuitive, localized picture of the world will be good enough. But if you’re using social media on behalf of an international brand, it’s imperative that you fully understand just how global your audience is and begin to incorporate this knowledge into your strategy and execution…